Bitcoin Holds Steady Despite Israel-Iran Tensions: No Signs of Full-on Panic
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Israel launching airstrikes against nuclear and military facilities in Iran, global financial markets have gone into a defensive mode. However, the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, has shown a cautious response rather than panic. Despite falling below the psychological threshold of $106,000, data shows that Bitcoin is still holding its long-term uptrend structure.
Bitcoin Corrects but Still Controls Sentiment
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen more than 4.5%, currently hovering around $104,300. The price drop was accompanied by more than $1.2 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated, wiping out more than $420 billion in crypto market capitalization. However, technical indicators such as RSI (47 points) and ADX (17 points) still show that the market has not entered an extreme sell-off phase.
Bitcoin's 50-day EMA at $102,500 is currently acting as temporary support, while the 200-day EMA remains safe around $92,600, indicating that the long-term uptrend has not been broken. The resistance to watch is $110,000, while notable support zones are located at $100,000 and $95,000.
Bitcoin's relative stability compared to traditional markets
Notably, while Bitcoin only corrected modestly, traditional markets reacted more strongly. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell 0.66% and 1.17%, respectively, reflecting investors' concerns about the risk of widespread conflict. Traditional safe-haven gold rose 1.8% to nearly $3,445 an ounce, approaching a record high. Brent crude also jumped 9%, ending the session at $72.60 a barrel, reflecting concerns about global supply as Iran is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell from 65 to 54, moving from “greed” to “neutral,” a reaction that is considered positive amid the uncertainty. In addition, ETF inflows into Bitcoin remained steady at over $86 million, indicating that institutional investor confidence has not been shaken.
Ethereum and altcoins under greater pressure
In contrast to Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins recorded a sharper decline. Ethereum lost more than 8% of its value, falling to $2,439 before recovering slightly to $2,552. The break below the 200-day EMA support suggests a deeper correction risk if it fails to recover to the $2,700 zone. Technical indicators such as RSI (50.6) and ADX (22) suggest that Ethereum’s recovery momentum remains weak.
Meme coins and highly speculative coins such as Fartcoin were also not spared from the sell-off, falling as much as 12%. However, some technical indicators remain neutral, suggesting that there is no wholesale collapse like in previous bear cycles.
Markets await further reaction from geopolitics and monetary policy
The Israeli attack on Iran was an unanticipated shock to the market, with the prediction rate on platforms such as Polymarket hovering around 11.20% before the incident. This suggests that the main reason for market concern is not just war, but the “surprise and uncertainty” factor.
Meanwhile, investors are still closely monitoring policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate moves or ETF inflow trends. Bitcoin's controlled response to major political events shows the growing maturity of the cryptocurrency market, no longer a purely speculative investment channel, but becoming a potential safe haven asset.
Conclusion: Bitcoin maintains its long-term bullish structure
Despite the shock from Israel-Iran tensions and the sharp correction in the risky asset market, Bitcoin has shown its ability to withstand pressure well. If it can maintain its technical support and confidence from institutional money, the world's largest cryptocurrency can continue to strengthen its role as a new safe haven asset in an era of global volatility. Meanwhile, altcoin and Ethereum investors will need more strong recovery signals to confirm that a short-term bottom has formed.