Pump.fun's PUMP Token Is Coming: Pump or Sell-Off? Experts Divided
Solana-based meme coin launchpad Pump.fun is preparing to launch its native token PUMP through a massive ICO on July 12. With 150 billion tokens being sold at a fixed price of $0.004 per token, the event has quickly captured the attention of the global crypto trading community. However, key questions remain: Will the token pump upon listing or will it fall into a sell-off? And does the $4 billion valuation reflect its true value?
Listing on six major exchanges, but limited to regions
PUMP will be sold and listed simultaneously on six major exchanges including Bybit, Kraken, Bitget, MEXC, KuCoin, and Gate.io, along with the official Pump.fun website. However, US and UK residents are barred from participating, making access to the token limited and potentially creating a FOMO effect from investors who do not have direct access.
Immediately after the sale ends (or after 72 hours if not sold out), PUMP tokens will begin trading publicly. US and UK traders who were excluded from the ICO will only be able to participate in the secondary market, opening up the possibility of a strong initial price increase if demand exceeds supply.
Prediction markets and futures assess the potential for price appreciation
On the Hyperliquid platform, which allows perpetual futures trading ahead of the token launch, PUMP is currently trading at around $0.0054, nearly 36% higher than the ICO price. The low recorded was $0.00478, still up nearly 20%, indicating confidence from the market before trading officially begins.
According to Messari analyst Matthew Nay, this is a reliable indicator of market expectations and can be used as a tool to shape short-term trading strategies.
Record-High Valuation Controversial
With a total supply of 150 billion tokens and an ICO price of $0.004, PUMP’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $4 billion. This figure was immediately met with controversy. Some experts called the valuation “unprecedented” for an emerging meme coin token, especially given that Pump.fun has recently lost significant market share to competing platforms like LetsBonk.
Beanie, a prominent VC investor, said that the $4 billion valuation was too optimistic and expected the token to fall sharply after listing. Similarly, analyst Daniel Seager of Trireme Trading also predicts that the price will not be able to multiply 3-4 times as some are expecting, although he still appreciates the long-term potential of the token in terms of tokenomics.
Advantages in token allocation and lockup structure
A notable point that makes many investors feel reassured is the token allocation mechanism. According to angel investor Solarnius, the tokens of the founding team and private investors are all locked up for a year. This means that there will be no selling pressure from these groups until at least mid-2026, an important factor in keeping the token price stable in the early stages.
Will the decline in market share affect investor sentiment?
Since its launch in early 2024, Pump.fun has accounted for 99% of the meme coin creation market share on the Solana network. However, data from Dune Analytics shows that its market share has dropped to around 34% in recent weeks, with LetsBonk and other competitors gaining ground. This has raised concerns that the platform is losing its monopoly, a factor that could affect the long-term value expectations of the PUMP token.
However, some experts believe that this is just a short-term fluctuation and does not reflect the full potential of Pump.fun. They believe that the platform still has a large user community and healthy tokenomics to support long-term growth.
Investors are divided: opportunity or valuation trap?
With a valuation that is half that of USDC issuer Circle, some traders are skeptical that PUMP is really worth it. Meanwhile, others believe that geographical restrictions and strong accumulation demand from private equity funds could drive a sharp price increase after listing.
Some small investors have even turned to investing in other “Pump”-themed meme projects with lower valuations and lower risks as an alternative strategy in the context of a polarized market.
Conclusion: Short-term opportunities, long-term risks
PUMP is clearly attracting a lot of attention with its broad ICO strategy, reasonable allocation mechanism, and high level of FOMO. However, with a valuation of $4 billion, investors need to soberly assess the risks, especially in the context of fierce competition in the launchpad market and the highly volatile meme coin trend.
Short-term traders can take advantage of the price increase wave immediately after the listing, while long-term investors need to carefully consider the real development potential of the Pump.fun platform before deciding to “all in”.
The launch of the PUMP token is not only a test for Pump.fun itself, but also a milestone for the Solana meme coin market. Will it be as successful as expected Wait or is it a classic case of “overhype”? The market will soon have the answer.